Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, Vol 15, No 1 (2019)

An Equilibrium Model with Applications

for the European Union Countries^*

Cătălin Angelo Ioan¹, Gina Ioan²

Abstract: The model presented in this article is an adaptation of the IS-LM model for an open economy in which we took into account the temporal variable to more accurately determine the equilibrium levels of the macroeconomic indicators. We analyzed the periods during which the values of the indicators exceeded the level of equilibrium and we identified the possible causes that led to these situations

Keywords: equilibrium; GDP; investments; interest rate; consumption

JEL Classification: E22; F21

1. Introduction

The economic equilibrium problem, has old origins and manifestations.

Among the first economists who have studied this issue can be remembered: François Quesnay, Léon Walras, Vilfredo Pareto and Alfred Marshall.

John Maynard Keynes in his famous work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, formulate a first economic equilibrium model for a closed economy without governmental sector.

Within theory of economic equilibrium, a synthetic analysis it is the IS-LM model consisting of simultaneous equilibrium in two markets, money market and the goods and services in an autarkic economy.

Starting from Keynesian macroeconomic equilibrium, a plethora of economists: Roy Harrod, James Meade, John Hicks, Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow have developed a series of models that have refined macroeconomic conditions.

The new approach enables researchers to explain the new changes that have occurred in the international macroeconomic environment.

The previous research of the authors materialized in the elaboration of two equilibrium models, presented in [1] and [2].

In the following we will present an IS-LM model in which the money supply will have a temporal character (as opposed to other models that it considers to be constant), leading to a refinement and greater accuracy of the balance indicators.

2. The Model Equations

The first equation of the model is the formula of the aggregate demand:

1. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

where

• D(t) – the aggregate demand at the moment t;

• C(t) – the actual final consumption of households at the moment t;

• G(t) – the actual final consumption of the government at the moment t;

• I(t) – the investment at the moment t;

• EX(t) – the exports at the moment t;

• IM(t) – the imports at the moment t

A second equation relates the actual final consumption of households according to disposable income:

2. C(t)=c_VDI(t)+C₀, C₀R, c_V0

where

• DI(t) – the disposable income at the moment t;

• c_V – the marginal propensity to consume, c_V= 0;

• C₀ – the intrinsic achieved autonomous consumption of households

3. G(t)=i_GTI(t)+G₀, i_G(0,1)

where

• TI(t) – the total income at the moment t;

• i_G – the marginal index of final consumption of the government according to total income

• G₀ - the intrinsic achieved autonomous consumption of government

4. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

where:

• TR(t) – tax rate at the moment t;

• OR(t) – other revenues at the moment t

5. OR(t)=i_ORY(t)+OR₀, i_OR(0,1), OR₀R

where:

• Y(t) – the output at the moment t;

• i_OR – the marginal index of other revenues according to the output;

• OR₀ – the autonomous other revenues

6. I(t)=i_YY(t)+i_rr(t)+I₀, i_Y(0,1), i_r0

where:

• I(t) – investments at the moment t;

• r(t) – the real interest rate at the moment t;

• i_Y – the rate of investments;

• i_r – a factor of influence on the investment rate

• I₀ - the autonomous investments

7. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

8. TF(t)=c_TFY(t)+TF₀, c_TF(0,1), TF₀R

where:

• TF(t) – the government transfers at the moment t;

• c_TF – the marginal index of government transfers according to the output;

• TF₀ – the autonomous government transfers

9. TR(t)=t_YY(t)+TR₀, t_Y(0,1), TR₀R

where:

• t_Y – the marginal index of tax rate according to the output;

• TR₀ – the intercept of the regression

10. IM(t)=im_YY(t)+IM₀, im_Y0, IM₀R

where:

• CH(t) – the exchange rate of the national currency based on the euro at the moment t;

• im_Y – the rate of imports;

• IM₀ – the autonomous imports

11. EX(t)=ex_YY(t)+EX₀, ex_Y0, EX₀R

where:

• ex_Y – the rate of exports;

• EX₀ – the autonomous exports

12. D(t)=Y(t) – the equation of equilibrium at the moment t

13. MD(t)=md_YY(t)+md_rr(t)+MD₀, md_Y(0,1), md_r0

where:

• MD(t) – the money demand in the economy at the moment t;

• md_Y – the rate of money demand in the economy;

• md_r – a factor of influencing the demand for currency from the interest rate

• MD₀ - the autonomous money demand

14. MS(t)=m_St+MS₀, m_M,M₀R

where:

• MS(t) – the money supply in the economy at the moment t;

• m_S – the marginal index of the money supply according to time;

• MS₀ – the intercept of the regression

15. MD(t)=MS(t) – the equation of equilibrium at the moment t

3. The Equilibrium at a Fixed Moment

From (4), (5), (11) we get:

16. TI(t)=(t_Y+i_OR)Y(t)+TR₀+OR₀

From (3), (16):

17. G(t)=(i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR)Y(t)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+G₀

From (7), (8), (9) we get:

18. DI(t)=(1+c_TF-t_Y)Y(t)+TF₀-TR₀

From (2), (18):

19. C(t)=(c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y)Y(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+C₀

Now, from (1), (6), (10), (11), (17), (19) we have:

20. D(t)=(c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y)Y(t)+i_rr(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+ I₀+EX₀-IM₀

From (12) and (20) we get the first equation of the equilibrium:

21. (c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y-1)Y(t)+i_rr(t)+c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+ I₀+EX₀-IM₀=0

and from (13), (14), (15) we get the second equation of the equilibrium

22. md_YY(t)+md_rr(t)-m_St+MD₀-MS₀=0

Let note now:

23. =c_V+c_Vc_TF-c_Vt_Y+i_Gt_Y+i_Gi_OR+i_Y+ex_Y-im_Y-1

24. =c_V(TF₀-TR₀)+i_G(TR₀+OR₀)+C₀+G₀+I₀+EX₀-IM₀

25. =MD₀-MS₀

The equilibrium equations become:

26. 

The solutions of equilibrium are:

27. 

At equilibrium, replacing (27) in (1)-(16), we have:

28. TI^*(t)=(t_Y+i_OR)Y^*(t)+TR₀+OR₀=
    

29. G^*(t)=

30. DI^*(t)=

31. C^*(t)=

32. OR^*(t)=

33. TR^*(t)=

34. TF^*(t)=

35. I^*(t)=

36. IM^*(t)=

37. EX^*(t)=

38. MD^*(t)=

39. MS^*(t)=m_St+MS₀

4. Analysis of the European Union Countries

4.1. Austria

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

40. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

41. C(t)=0.3987DI(t)+52781431585

42. G(t)=0.4687TI(t)-4839546988

43. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

44. OR(t)=0.2198Y(t)-15333853031

45. I(t)=0.1858Y(t)+1413071871r(t)+16476650588

46. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

47. TF(t)=-0.0687Y(t)+119490411669

48. TR(t)=0.2212Y(t)+15092298437

49. IM(t)=0.9762Y(t)-195533878498

50. EX(t)=1.1653Y(t)-257232209186

51. D(t)=Y(t)

52. MD(t)=2.3627Y(t)+1661548524r(t)-599376233472

53. MS(t)=10482608431t-20731426667302

54. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

55. Y(t)=4156789427.17t-7962572838085.45

56. r(t)=0.3980t-793.7680

57. TI(t)=1832911802.26t-3511291124698.38

58. G(t)=859108246.37t-1650624770750.72

59. DI(t)=2951734957.94t-5549822533050.98

60. C(t)=1176709954.70t-2159656851153.71

61. OR(t)=913484399.46t-1765166553141.55

62. TR(t)=919427402.80t-1746124571556.83

63. TF(t)=-285627066.42t+666625733477.64

64. I(t)=1334869633.22t-2584769388501.00

65. IM(t)=4057762819.72t-7968415468434.85

66. EX(t)=4843864412.61t-9535937296114.87

67. MD(t)=MS(t)=10482608430.55t-20731426667302.20

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2012 (103.76%) and the minimum in 2000 (95.07%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 51.34-53.17%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (105.30%) and the minimum in 2001 (94.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.88-19.60%.

The analysis of “Other revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2009 (102.34%) and the minimum in 2003 (94.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.50-17.90%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2007 (104.99%) and the minimum in 2010 (90.03%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.57-25.16%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2014 (118.87%) and the minimum in 2016 (-0.24%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.85-26.69%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (104.13%) and the minimum in 2000 (95.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.48-26.58%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (112.34%) and the minimum in 2003 (89.32%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2007 (108.40%) and the minimum in 2000 (88.88%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 48.77-52.06%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (106.68%) and the minimum in 2009 (90.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 46.12-48.51%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2008 (153.68%) and the minimum in 2000 (32.65%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2005 (107.50%) and the minimum in 2000 (99.80%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2000 (178.66%) and the minimum in 2012 (41.25%).

Figure 4.1.1 Figure 4.1.2

Figure 4.1.3 Figure 4.1.4

Figure 4.1.5 Figure 4.1.6

Figure 4.1.7 Figure 4.1.8

Figure 4.1.9 Figure 4.1.10

Figure 4.1.11 Figure 4.1.12

4.2. Belgium

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

68. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

69. C(t)=0.3378DI(t)+82653893466

70. G(t)=0.6586TI(t)-17869236982

71. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

72. OR(t)=0.2082Y(t)-24254265700

73. I(t)=0.3800Y(t)+62221854r(t)-70543222141

74. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

75. TF(t)=-1.5258Y(t)+800167627669

76. TR(t)=0.2075Y(t)+21195129092

77. IM(t)=1.6758Y(t)-435841425013

78. EX(t)=1.6582Y(t)-418802100843

79. D(t)=Y(t)

80. MD(t)=2.4109Y(t)+110631834r(t)-620332319134

81. MS(t)=16243049827t-32107707523970

82. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

83. Y(t)=4643151208.09t-8862354503367.71

84. r(t)=45.6356t-91482.5031

85. TI(t)=1930054240.37t-3686941939967.44

86. G(t)=1271147033.85t-2446114626649.33

87. DI(t)=-3404456824.91t+7277038557936.67

88. C(t)=-1150090139.08t+2540975651572.31

89. OR(t)=966814673.39t-1869607559329.07

90. TR(t)=963239566.98t-1817334380638.38

91. TF(t)=-7084368466.02t+14322058680666.00

92. I(t)=4603709246.44t-9130032779495.56

93. IM(t)=7780890583.27t-15287180011773.60

94. EX(t)=7699275650.14t-15114362760568.80

95. MD(t)=MS(t)=16243049826.66t-32107707523970.10

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2015 (115.08%) and the minimum in 2000 (94.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 50.63-51.96%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2012 (105.90%) and the minimum in 2000 (93.67%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.52-24.12%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2013 (107.40%) and the minimum in 2000 (96.70%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.38-16.64%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (119.03%) and the minimum in 2013 (81.06%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.57-24.74%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (266.27%) and the minimum in 2016 (-1289.80%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.75-28.13%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2014 (107.19%) and the minimum in 2009 (94.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.62-27.08%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (106.69%) and the minimum in 2002 (95.49%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (114.34%) and the minimum in 2009 (94.73%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 72.42-90.35%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (115.71%) and the minimum in 2003 (93.51%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 70.01-89.57%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (153.38%) and the minimum in 2000 (22.17%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (104.66%) and the minimum in 2001 (96.86%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2005 (28.03%) and the minimum in 2004 (-16.06%).

Figure 4.2.1 Figure 4.2.2

Figure 4.2.3 Figure 4.2.4

Figure 4.2.5 Figure 4.2.6

Figure 4.2.7 Figure 4.2.8

Figure 4.2.9 Figure 4.2.10

Figure 4.2.11 Figure 4.2.12

4.3. Bulgaria

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

96. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

97. C(t)=0.7033DI(t)-2464595914

98. G(t)=0.3866TI(t)+3359586185

99. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

100. OR(t)=0.0384Y(t)+1201203842

101. I(t)=0.3245Y(t)-477187249r(t)-1644563292

102. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

103. TF(t)=0.0424Y(t)+5741261451

104. TR(t)=0.2413Y(t)-2109765678

105. IM(t)=1.1239Y(t)-26512640543

106. EX(t)=1.0410Y(t)-25031239514

107. D(t)=Y(t)

108. MD(t)=1.4951Y(t)+580181761r(t)-43503801589

109. MS(t)=2362029644t-4713839152410

110. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

111. Y(t)=1699944321.52t-3366388370945.31

112. r(t)=-0.3096t+625.4511

113. TI(t)=475509654.26t-942557150026.42

114. G(t)=183823229.16t-361015558321.17

115. DI(t)=1361666752.45t-2688648536140.32

116. C(t)=957662662.68t-1893395920695.48

117. OR(t)=65228633.15t-127970622149.75

118. TR(t)=410281021.10t-814586527876.67

119. TF(t)=72003452.04t-136846693071.69

120. I(t)=699290032.27t-1392346173697.42

121. IM(t)=1910544994.65t-3809952116022.43

122. EX(t)=1769713392.06t-3529582834253.68

123. MD(t)=MS(t)=2362029643.50t-4713839152409.76

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (116.04%) and the minimum in 2000 (92.33%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 63.65-66.47%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2006 (108.53%) and the minimum in 2000 (92.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.82-19.26%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2001 (129.39%) and the minimum in 2000 (69.62%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.55-9.66%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (155.07%) and the minimum in 2016 (63.99%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.18-35.40%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2004 (120.96%) and the minimum in 2016 (-1.86%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.71-22.22%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (128.26%) and the minimum in 2002 (81.73%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.84-22.70%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (111.81%) and the minimum in 2003 (90.80%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (121.18%) and the minimum in 2009 (89.24%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 35.25-50.04%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (130.74%) and the minimum in 2010 (88.74%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 34.56-66.68%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2008 (355.98%) and the minimum in 2000 (-46.74%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (110.11%) and the minimum in 2014 (92.03%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2013 (437.57%) and the minimum in 2007 (-23.46%).

Figure 4.3.1 Figure 4.3.2

Figure 4.3.3 Figure 4.3.4

Figure 4.3.5 Figure 4.3.6

Figure 4.3.7 Figure 4.3.8

Figure 4.3.9 Figure 4.3.10

Figure 4.3.11 Figure 4.3.12

4.4. Cyprus

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

124. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

125. C(t)=0.7558DI(t)-2109965499

126. G(t)=-0.0142TI(t)+4054334055

127. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

128. OR(t)=0.0015Y(t)+3733546499

129. I(t)=0.4175Y(t)+115746714r(t)-4657420610

130. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

131. TF(t)=0.0682Y(t)+4824899197

132. TR(t)=0.1034Y(t)+5070051418

133. IM(t)=0.5988Y(t)-567111518

134. EX(t)=0.2327Y(t)+7537464470

135. D(t)=Y(t)

136. MD(t)=3.0361Y(t)+341996356r(t)-28651718508

137. MS(t)=1643428588t-3253247845594

138. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

139. Y(t)=445555354.10t-870160573165.39

140. r(t)=0.8499t-1703.8028

141. TI(t)=46708011.87t-82416202283.83

142. G(t)=-663337.40t+5224791698.28

143. DI(t)=429880344.32t-839792749087.66

144. C(t)=324915298.80t-636848249309.84

145. OR(t)=659239.62t+2446064881.16

146. TR(t)=46048772.25t-84862267164.99

147. TF(t)=30373762.47t-54494443087.26

148. I(t)=284418582.62t-565202350373.08

149. IM(t)=266783569.00t-521590012883.48

150. EX(t)=103668379.09t-194924778064.23

151. MD(t)=MS(t)=1643428588.01t-3253247845594.38

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (110.39%) and the minimum in 2000 (89.78%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 64.71-64.71%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2011 (124.67%) and the minimum in 2000 (71.77%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.53-16.84%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2008 (130.79%) and the minimum in 2013 (74.63%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.16-21.77%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2003, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (108.11%) and the minimum in 2003 (96.25%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.73-24.29%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2007 (178.81%) and the minimum in 2016 (-5.56%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 32.59-46.75%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (158.19%) and the minimum in 2013 (69.55%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 37.08-48.34%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2007 (108.49%) and the minimum in 2000 (90.03%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (110.34%) and the minimum in 2003 (91.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.00-0.00%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (113.28%) and the minimum in 2013 (84.17%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 57.59-57.59%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2002 (407.56%) and the minimum in 2003 (-665.62%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (102.74%) and the minimum in 2000 (90.50%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2005 (811.10%) and the minimum in 2004 (-787.49%).

Figure 4.4.1 Figure 4.4.2

Figure 4.4.3 Figure 4.4.4

Figure 4.4.5 Figure 4.4.6

Figure 4.4.7 Figure 4.4.8

Figure 4.4.9 Figure 4.4.10

Figure 4.4.11 Figure 4.4.12

4.5. Croatia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

152. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

153. C(t)=0.5518DI(t)+3028835902

154. G(t)=0.5398TI(t)+391175659

155. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

156. OR(t)=0.1886Y(t)-2540700178

157. I(t)=0.5627Y(t)+528561602r(t)-25094784161

158. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

159. TF(t)=-0.0304Y(t)+10473007323

160. TR(t)=0.1357Y(t)+3617270338

161. IM(t)=0.6882Y(t)-16029030511

162. EX(t)=0.5129Y(t)-6883665708

163. D(t)=Y(t)

164. MD(t)=0.1211Y(t)-5132123256r(t)+79381998413

165. MS(t)=1543157827t-3062118294799

166. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

167. Y(t)=4524061154.31t-8977487254153.65

168. r(t)=-0.1939t+400.2026

169. TI(t)=1467312594.99t-2910639180376.77

170. G(t)=792094883.31t-1570850296542.54

171. DI(t)=3772484965.57t-7479213646194.85

172. C(t)=2081831529.98t-4124346867438.11

173. OR(t)=853434471.20t-1696084802733.56

174. TR(t)=613878123.79t-1214554377643.21

175. TF(t)=-137698064.95t+283719230315.59

176. I(t)=2443372960.94t-4865526910842.27

177. IM(t)=3113541684.93t-6194500063140.80

178. EX(t)=2320303465.01t-4611263242471.53

179. MD(t)=MS(t)=1543157827.45t-3062118294798.82

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2002 (72.08%) and the minimum in 2016 (47.91%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2000 (72.37%) and the minimum in 2014 (46.42%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2004 (58.40%) and the minimum in 2013 (37.74%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2011 (26.10%) and the minimum in 2013 (22.14%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2008 (157.00%) and the minimum in 2016 (-33.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.91-17.58%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (78.52%) and the minimum in 2014 (50.75%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2011 (112.08%) and the minimum in 2013 (98.01%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2003 (55.73%) and the minimum in 2013 (39.83%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2003 (52.92%) and the minimum in 2014 (31.60%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2008 (48.34%) and the minimum in 2000 (-25.15%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (84.23%) and the minimum in 2002 (72.26%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2002 (69.60%) and the minimum in 2000 (63.45%).

Figure 4.5.1 Figure 4.5.2

Figure 4.5.3 Figure 4.5.4

Figure 4.5.5 Figure 4.5.6

Figure 4.5.7 Figure 4.5.8

Figure 4.5.9 Figure 4.5.10

Figure 4.5.11 Figure 4.5.12

4.6. Denmark

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

180. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

181. C(t)=0.4157DI(t)+16807048401

182. G(t)=0.4961TI(t)+18253530702

183. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

184. OR(t)=0.0145Y(t)+17023731602

185. I(t)=0.6152Y(t)+3952567122r(t)-145055443417

186. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

187. TF(t)=0.1178Y(t)+64768682646

188. TR(t)=0.6763Y(t)-111664503621

189. IM(t)=1.6045Y(t)-378620894512

190. EX(t)=1.4378Y(t)-302530107797

191. D(t)=Y(t)

192. MD(t)=1.6613Y(t)+2614644643r(t)-352323507581

193. MS(t)=4244178167t-8330943928249

194. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

195. Y(t)=2529251546.81t-4757696698738.36

196. r(t)=0.0162t-28.5460

197. TI(t)=1747276968.49t-3381389326254.36

198. G(t)=866891211.69t-1659383582977.36

199. DI(t)=1116561183.64t-1923895452077.04

200. C(t)=464155421.50t-782957906325.15

201. OR(t)=36634573.51t-51888429265.65

202. TR(t)=1710642394.98t-3329500896988.71

203. TF(t)=297952031.81t-495699650327.39

204. I(t)=1620051964.89t-3184969410494.03

205. IM(t)=4058292617.68t-8012549363981.29

206. EX(t)=3636445566.42t-7142935162923.11

207. MD(t)=MS(t)=4244178166.76t-8330943928248.70

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (107.91%) and the minimum in 2001 (95.00%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 47.15-47.97%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (106.29%) and the minimum in 2000 (94.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.07-27.64%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2011 (116.12%) and the minimum in 2015 (87.06%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.67-7.75%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2007 (117.93%) and the minimum in 2010 (81.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.88-23.46%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2014 (130.02%) and the minimum in 2016 (8.70%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 33.05-40.46%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (113.00%) and the minimum in 2003 (94.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 31.59-36.82%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2013, 2014, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (118.75%) and the minimum in 2016 (75.75%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2008 (109.70%) and the minimum in 2003 (94.54%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 49.08-55.98%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (116.36%) and the minimum in 2003 (91.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 39.59-49.67%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2015 (117.03%) and the minimum in 2008 (69.36%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (104.89%) and the minimum in 2009 (97.69%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2000 (147.92%) and the minimum in 2016 (7.85%).

Figure 4.6.1 Figure 4.6.2

Figure 4.6.3 Figure 4.6.4

Figure 4.6.5 Figure 4.6.6

Figure 4.6.7 Figure 4.6.8

Figure 4.6.9 Figure 4.6.10

Figure 4.6.11 Figure 4.6.12

4.7. Estonia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

208. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

209. C(t)=0.5060DI(t)+1052592819

210. G(t)=8.5884TI(t)-75161520

211. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

212. OR(t)=0.0086Y(t)+9521641

213. I(t)=0.3131Y(t)-262574569r(t)-171024733

214. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

215. TF(t)=-0.5774Y(t)+9663797088

216. TR(t)=0.0141Y(t)-24154057

217. IM(t)=1.4435Y(t)-14657683977

218. EX(t)=1.3764Y(t)-13415161645

219. D(t)=Y(t)

220. MD(t)=1.5976Y(t)+576059185r(t)-23193643885

221. MS(t)=828753095t-1653586772877

222. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

223. Y(t)=1004431166.86t-1994151253063.47

224. r(t)=-1.3470t+2700.2523

225. TI(t)=22827764.52t-45335821891.84

226. G(t)=196054580.69t-389438541465.40

227. DI(t)=410309788.70t-804922154827.39

228. C(t)=207634370.31t-406272577977.62

229. OR(t)=8668956.24t-17201423734.46

230. TR(t)=14158808.28t-28134398157.38

231. TF(t)=-579962569.88t+1161094700078.70

232. I(t)=668190836.87t-1333592033242.59

233. IM(t)=1449902696.46t-2893227539586.46

234. EX(t)=1382454075.46t-2758075639964.32

235. MD(t)=MS(t)=828753095.28t-1653586772877.21

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (127.53%) and the minimum in 2000 (83.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.42-56.97%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2008 (100.79%) and the minimum in 2012 (79.79%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.12-19.12%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2007 (103.29%) and the minimum in 2013 (78.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 0.86-0.94%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2006 (116.40%) and the minimum in 2010 (43.78%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.76-36.78%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2003, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2016 (293.58%) and the minimum in 2002 (-5007.03%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between -100.00--3.82%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (109.22%) and the minimum in 2011 (76.14%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 1.28-1.30%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2012, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2006 (109.74%) and the minimum in 2010 (90.15%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (106.49%) and the minimum in 2009 (61.66%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 51.53-51.53%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (105.13%) and the minimum in 2009 (56.72%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 71.52-74.41%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2004 (5089.21%) and the minimum in 2003 (-1439.49%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (108.69%) and the minimum in 2016 (77.35%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2005 (230.45%) and the minimum in 2009 (-152.28%).

Figure 4.7.1 Figure 4.7.2

Figure 4.7.3 Figure 4.7.4

Figure 4.7.5 Figure 4.7.6

Figure 4.7.7 Figure 4.7.8

Figure 4.7.9 Figure 4.7.10

Figure 4.7.11 Figure 4.7.12

4.8. Finland

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

236. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

237. C(t)=0.5938DI(t)-16711028072

238. G(t)=0.8114TI(t)-17965966882

239. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

240. OR(t)=0.2205Y(t)-13490646484

241. I(t)=0.2520Y(t)+1312728363r(t)-9263143715

242. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

243. TF(t)=-0.0143Y(t)+52240525483

244. TR(t)=0.0785Y(t)+31705095949

245. IM(t)=0.8922Y(t)-126129554087

246. EX(t)=0.7414Y(t)-86376519663

247. D(t)=Y(t)

248. MD(t)=1.3645Y(t)-10822838937r(t)-148959623015

249. MS(t)=6373240968t-12643854379281

250. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

251. Y(t)=16108386148.42t-32055683584894.10

252. r(t)=1.4420t-2886.8562

253. TI(t)=4815858928.59t-9565343368309.05

254. G(t)=3907618384.67t-7779346056273.46

255. DI(t)=14613484567.16t-29060294458783.40

256. C(t)=8676757172.92t-17271262277206.50

257. OR(t)=3551857536.21t-7081686074018.85

258. TR(t)=1264001392.39t-2483657294290.20

259. TF(t)=-230900188.88t+511731831820.52

260. I(t)=5952561036.38t-11877642941219.80

261. IM(t)=14371243936.76t-28724900660845.90

262. EX(t)=11942693491.20t-23852332971040.20

263. MD(t)=MS(t)=6373240967.84t-12643854379281.30

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (129.00%) and the minimum in 2016 (63.94%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 50.68-52.31%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2000 (122.48%) and the minimum in 2015 (64.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.00-22.22%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2000 (150.78%) and the minimum in 2015 (55.18%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.57-16.08%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (182.72%) and the minimum in 2015 (45.26%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.70-24.55%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2007 (115.56%) and the minimum in 2016 (5.60%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.06-22.81%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (114.61%) and the minimum in 2015 (80.71%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.12-24.27%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (111.09%) and the minimum in 2001 (91.63%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (218.38%) and the minimum in 2016 (44.55%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 34.16-35.74%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2000 (358.67%) and the minimum in 2016 (43.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 29.97-32.97%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2006 (769.69%) and the minimum in 2007 (-588.27%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (129.98%) and the minimum in 2016 (60.12%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2003 (281.39%) and the minimum in 2002 (-7182.11%).

Figure 4.8.1 Figure 4.8.2

Figure 4.8.3 Figure 4.8.4

Figure 4.8.5 Figure 4.8.6

Figure 4.8.7 Figure 4.8.8

Figure 4.8.9 Figure 4.8.10

Figure 4.8.11 Figure 4.8.12

4.9. France

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

264. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

265. C(t)=0.6148DI(t)-195536697151

266. G(t)=0.5784TI(t)-50863004798

267. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

268. OR(t)=0.3206Y(t)-293479106542

269. I(t)=0.2821Y(t)+8023029445r(t)-160825439811

270. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

271. TF(t)=-0.1452Y(t)+969610759287

272. TR(t)=0.2253Y(t)-3322561936

273. IM(t)=0.7847Y(t)-1325044739757

274. EX(t)=0.5591Y(t)-761295217469

275. D(t)=Y(t)

276. MD(t)=2.4021Y(t)-69398829277r(t)-3987489916966

277. MS(t)=79920369628t-158377437466131

278. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

279. Y(t)=250133621287.65t-498990271242590.00

280. r(t)=7.5063t-15046.9970

281. TI(t)=136562905488.73t-272725437613953.00

282. G(t)=78986777671.51t-157792845932623.00

283. DI(t)=157466466258.65t-313156108210766.00

284. C(t)=96805177592.25t-192713559040064.00

285. OR(t)=80203367623.89t-160290763594699.00

286. TR(t)=56359537864.84t-112434674019254.00

287. TF(t)=-36307617164.16t+73399489012570.80

288. I(t)=130778691174.70t-261633546236715.00

289. IM(t)=196283364876.75t-392889717157869.00

290. EX(t)=139846339725.93t-279740037191057.00

291. MD(t)=MS(t)=79920369627.66t-158377437466131.00

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (141.38%) and the minimum in 2016 (64.32%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 54.04-54.59%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2000 (284.61%) and the minimum in 2015 (48.63%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.76-22.80%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2000 (397.66%) and the minimum in 2015 (45.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.65-20.34%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2001 (1001.23%) and the minimum in 2000 (-712.46%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.06-23.14%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (286.92%) and the minimum in 2016 (22.25%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.47-24.76%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (191.81%) and the minimum in 2015 (57.10%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.00-23.25%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2009 (107.61%) and the minimum in 2002 (93.28%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2001 (644.32%) and the minimum in 2000 (-1222.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.63-25.66%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2002 (836.73%) and the minimum in 2001 (-450.62%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.07-26.01%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2005 (137.24%) and the minimum in 2000 (7.84%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (183.75%) and the minimum in 2016 (53.24%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2005 (96.76%) and the minimum in 2004 (-70.93%).

Figure 4.9.1 Figure 4.9.2

Figure 4.9.3 Figure 4.9.4

Figure 4.9.5 Figure 4.9.6

Figure 4.9.7 Figure 4.9.8

Figure 4.9.9 Figure 4.9.10

Figure 4.9.11 Figure 4.9.12

4.10. Germany

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

292. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

293. C(t)=0.2824DI(t)+937382518271

294. G(t)=0.7905TI(t)-123148732160

295. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

296. OR(t)=0.0965Y(t)+252659401705

297. I(t)=0.1925Y(t)+12510288121r(t)-38366392214

298. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

299. TF(t)=0.0769Y(t)+134013352102

300. TR(t)=0.1514Y(t)-133292216568

301. IM(t)=1.1189Y(t)-2621351973834

302. EX(t)=1.4609Y(t)-3607254924684

303. D(t)=Y(t)

304. MD(t)=2.1673Y(t)+41609080712r(t)-4837120214225

305. MS(t)=73824243961t-145527514820282

306. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

307. Y(t)=33643436020.19t-64176818622368.80

308. r(t)=0.0219t-38.5213

309. TI(t)=8341444101.88t-15792424489592.50

310. G(t)=6593511850.93t-12606303537878.80

311. DI(t)=31136534444.72t-59127451922476.00

312. C(t)=8793830227.37t-15761867518889.20

313. OR(t)=3247310496.96t-5941774979165.65

314. TR(t)=5094133604.92t-9850649510426.87

315. TF(t)=2587232029.46t-4801282810534.07

316. I(t)=6750097783.55t-12874385116617.30

317. IM(t)=37643240930.05t-74428032007247.00

318. EX(t)=49149237088.39t-97362294456230.50

319. MD(t)=MS(t)=73824243961.02t-145527514820282.00

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (104.33%) and the minimum in 2003 (98.78%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 54.24-57.78%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (106.60%) and the minimum in 2007 (96.07%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.55-19.74%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2015 (104.40%) and the minimum in 2009 (96.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.78-18.18%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2000 (114.16%) and the minimum in 2009 (86.38%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.66-22.87%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2011 (122.93%) and the minimum in 2016 (15.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 12.35-13.94%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (107.92%) and the minimum in 2004 (92.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 10.93-11.66%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (144.37%) and the minimum in 2004, 2005 (90.92%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2007 (112.62%) and the minimum in 2003 (90.96%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 39.57-48.84%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (108.46%) and the minimum in 2002 (90.98%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 27.61-41.90%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (144.37%) and the minimum in 2000 (17.57%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (103.66%) and the minimum in 2009 (96.20%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2000 (193.43%) and the minimum in 2012 (43.86%).

Figure 4.10.1 Figure 4.10.2

Figure 4.10.3 Figure 4.10.4

Figure 4.10.5 Figure 4.10.6

Figure 4.10.7 Figure 4.10.8

Figure 4.10.9 Figure 4.10.10

Figure 4.10.11 Figure 4.10.12

4.11. Greece

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

320. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

321. C(t)=0.6316DI(t)+15919470810

322. G(t)=0.8367TI(t)-38173543418

323. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

324. OR(t)=0.1081Y(t)+24716202570

325. I(t)=0.4403Y(t)-1313386479r(t)-59705374916

326. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

327. TF(t)=0.6396Y(t)-140271965407

328. TR(t)=0.0811Y(t)+37293513923

329. IM(t)=0.3730Y(t)-16030964547

330. EX(t)=0.0218Y(t)+59834229239

331. D(t)=Y(t)

332. MD(t)=1.3047Y(t)+4659968700r(t)-145543072108

333. MS(t)=5751210339t-11285578879266

334. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

335. Y(t)=2704083575.15t-5127071965195.64

336. r(t)=0.4771t-955.0514

337. TI(t)=511795684.56t-908379412868.60

338. G(t)=428198420.80t-798177275017.32

339. DI(t)=4214215873.28t-8167920606559.76

340. C(t)=2661723466.70t-5142987098379.45

341. OR(t)=292439295.64t-529762707769.50

342. TR(t)=219356388.92t-378616705099.10

343. TF(t)=1729488687.04t-3419465346463.21

344. I(t)=563937445.88t-1062593110826.28

345. IM(t)=1008659441.28t-1928497572954.86

346. EX(t)=58883683.04t-51812053927.46

347. MD(t)=MS(t)=5751210338.73t-11285578879265.60

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (111.73%) and the minimum in 2015 (78.28%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 65.45-69.37%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (119.77%) and the minimum in 2014 (77.82%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.31-23.47%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2008 (111.98%) and the minimum in 2002 (86.04%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.27-19.87%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2007 (125.05%) and the minimum in 2015 (35.99%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.72-26.07%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2000 (145.30%) and the minimum in 2016 (-363.90%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.23-24.26%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (109.07%) and the minimum in 2001 (90.92%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.78-20.33%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2009 (126.08%) and the minimum in 2000 (62.55%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2008 (116.98%) and the minimum in 2003 (79.74%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.12-30.85%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (123.85%) and the minimum in 2013 (72.56%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 31.91-36.26%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (147.04%) and the minimum in 2015 (11.86%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (110.68%) and the minimum in 2016 (75.37%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2002 (32627.39%) and the minimum in 2001 (-1149.84%).

Figure 4.11.1 Figure 4.11.2

Figure 4.11.3 Figure 4.11.4

Figure 4.11.5 Figure 4.11.6

Figure 4.11.7 Figure 4.11.8

Figure 4.11.9 Figure 4.11.10

Figure 4.11.11 Figure 4.11.12

4.12. Ireland

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

348. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

349. C(t)=0.2923DI(t)+47507937098

350. G(t)=0.4769TI(t)+5155128024

351. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

352. OR(t)=0.0960Y(t)-4151608014

353. I(t)=0.2373Y(t)-3200812306r(t)+13915475097

354. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

355. TF(t)=-1.2570Y(t)+280334903641

356. TR(t)=0.1400Y(t)+20766603370

357. IM(t)=1.2370Y(t)-84224100696

358. EX(t)=1.6554Y(t)-146440718677

359. D(t)=Y(t)

360. MD(t)=2.0519Y(t)+18265150609r(t)-284671307310

361. MS(t)=14479680294t-28817586251403

362. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

363. Y(t)=215240763303.18t-431619448235762.00

364. r(t)=-23.3868t+46924.8516

365. TI(t)=50787384712.71t-101826654051976.00

366. G(t)=24221193556.89t-48557359185215.00

367. DI(t)=-85434083110.35t+171579402177084.00

368. C(t)=-24968467358.55t+50192304330880.10

369. OR(t)=20662314781.10t-41438017425190.20

370. TR(t)=30125069931.62t-60388636626785.70

371. TF(t)=-270549776481.91t+542810213786060.00

372. I(t)=125940503391.49t-252621051573735.00

373. IM(t)=266262717565.90t-534017320591687.00

374. EX(t)=356310251279.25t-714650662399380.00

375. MD(t)=MS(t)=14479680293.51t-28817586251403.30

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2010 (1853.17%) and the minimum in 2011 (-549.90%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 47.46-50.43%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2005 (596.27%) and the minimum in 2004 (-186.75%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.06-17.44%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2006 (148.14%) and the minimum in 2005 (-143.41%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.93-6.93%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2006 (415.27%) and the minimum in 2005 (-53.41%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 28.64-28.64%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2006 (36.24%) and the minimum in 2007 (-15.33%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2005 (450.23%) and the minimum in 2004 (-281.87%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.48-26.81%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (121.90%) and the minimum in 2003 (87.01%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2006 (185.27%) and the minimum in 2005 (-74.85%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 88.22-88.22%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2006 (174.98%) and the minimum in 2005 (-104.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 81.76-81.76%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2006 (725.78%) and the minimum in 2005 (-21.29%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2006 (147.33%) and the minimum in 2005 (-347.31%). The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2006 (34.90%) and the minimum in 2007 (-34.55%).

Figure 4.12.1 Figure 4.12.2

Figure 4.12.3 Figure 4.12.4

Figure 4.12.5 Figure 4.12.6

Figure 4.12.7 Figure 4.12.8

Figure 4.12.9 Figure 4.12.10

Figure 4.12.11 Figure 4.12.12

4.13. Italy

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

376. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

377. C(t)=0.3369DI(t)+563856832697

378. G(t)=0.2745TI(t)+192005312289

379. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

380. OR(t)=0.0489Y(t)+211109608806

381. I(t)=0.7808Y(t)+2148022572r(t)-1231930333717

382. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

383. TF(t)=0.3390Y(t)-276247588964

384. TR(t)=0.0442Y(t)+379266313707

385. IM(t)=0.4016Y(t)-307319720941

386. EX(t)=0.0689Y(t)+402147463098

387. D(t)=Y(t)

388. MD(t)=-0.4729Y(t)-28097913487r(t)+2620341678323

389. MS(t)=51616462604t-102099905215406

390. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

391. Y(t)=-31257572291.66t+64798724319624.90

392. r(t)=-1.3110t+2636.4463

393. TI(t)=-2910998849.13t+6625042023886.56

394. G(t)=-798952388.80t+2010313537465.03

395. DI(t)=-40472393073.27t+83246057749781.50

396. C(t)=-13635992347.03t+28611187869968.70

397. OR(t)=-1528486017.46t+3379748015763.25

398. TR(t)=-1382512831.68t+3245294008123.30

399. TF(t)=-10597333613.29t+21692627438280.00

400. I(t)=-27222591036.26t+55027471249715.40

401. IM(t)=-12553510252.18t+25716820685255.40

402. EX(t)=-2153546771.75t+4866572347731.14

403. MD(t)=MS(t)=51616462604.08t-102099905215406.00

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (114.43%) and the minimum in 2000 (93.70%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 58.95-61.58%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2010 (107.30%) and the minimum in 2000 (89.84%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.85-20.78%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2009 (108.67%) and the minimum in 2000 (88.53%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.52-16.07%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2016 (244.91%) and the minimum in 2000 (73.51%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.01-22.60%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (140.06%) and the minimum in 2016 (1.44%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.90-23.56%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (106.25%) and the minimum in 2004 (94.45%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.89-23.73%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (109.48%) and the minimum in 2002 (95.69%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (121.46%) and the minimum in 2003 (86.21%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.74-30.61%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (144.76%) and the minimum in 2000 (78.31%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.55-28.42%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2004 (173.26%) and the minimum in 2005 (-823.77%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (116.81%) and the minimum in 2000 (90.22%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2011 (4632.60%) and the minimum in 2012 (-302.42%).

Figure 4.13.1 Figure 4.13.2

Figure 4.13.3 Figure 4.13.4

Figure 4.13.5 Figure 4.13.6

Figure 4.13.7 Figure 4.13.8

Figure 4.13.9 Figure 4.13.10

Figure 4.13.11 Figure 4.13.12

4.14. Latvia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

404. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

405. C(t)=0.6202DI(t)+59617584

406. G(t)=0.2881TI(t)+1773553940

407. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

408. OR(t)=0.2171Y(t)-518709805

409. I(t)=0.4036Y(t)-133187552r(t)-2381369716

410. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

411. TF(t)=0.0986Y(t)+2196672723

412. TR(t)=0.2221Y(t)-406308985

413. IM(t)=0.9124Y(t)-8225233643

414. EX(t)=0.7983Y(t)-7445864697

415. D(t)=Y(t)

416. MD(t)=0.6685Y(t)+105203742r(t)-6968585957

417. MS(t)=698990594t-1393226776298

418. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

419. Y(t)=1097961885.04t-2179468735527.51

420. r(t)=-0.3325t+671.9715

421. TI(t)=482191050.36t-958080575035.36

422. G(t)=138898884.99t-274209012516.36

423. DI(t)=962427158.82t-1907827545475.07

424. C(t)=596896762.74t-1183173913735.89

425. OR(t)=238352655.58t-473651855817.40

426. TR(t)=243838394.78t-484428719217.96

427. TF(t)=108303668.56t-212787529165.52

428. I(t)=487383982.49t-971424043943.54

429. IM(t)=1001742720.11t-1996697665392.53

430. EX(t)=876524974.93t-1747359430724.26

431. MD(t)=MS(t)=698990593.87t-1393226776297.79

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (129.56%) and the minimum in 2015 (88.09%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 59.86-65.90%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2008 (125.87%) and the minimum in 2012 (87.08%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.65-20.86%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2006 (114.24%) and the minimum in 2015 (86.54%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.86-23.04%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2007 (175.03%) and the minimum in 2010 (55.85%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.81-39.47%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2009 (131.05%) and the minimum in 2016 (-1.28%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.49-25.40%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (130.25%) and the minimum in 2010 (79.50%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.98-22.25%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2006 (122.73%) and the minimum in 2013 (82.64%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (109.85%) and the minimum in 2009 (82.58%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 38.07-45.39%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (142.27%) and the minimum in 2009 (73.58%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 44.13-65.54%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (338.99%) and the minimum in 2015 (5.72%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (124.09%) and the minimum in 2010 (86.60%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2009 (502.89%) and the minimum in 2007 (-138.06%).

Figure 4.14.1 Figure 4.14.2

Figure 4.14.3 Figure 4.14.4

Figure 4.14.5 Figure 4.14.6

Figure 4.14.7 Figure 4.14.8

Figure 4.14.9 Figure 4.14.10

Figure 4.14.11 Figure 4.14.12

4.15. Lithuania

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

432. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

433. C(t)=0.6570DI(t)+707905602

434. G(t)=1.5223TI(t)+1890991417

435. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

436. OR(t)=0.0466Y(t)-241560126

437. I(t)=0.1710Y(t)-253919529r(t)+1681378716

438. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

439. TF(t)=1.3737Y(t)-56094738696

440. TR(t)=0.0387Y(t)+489113346

441. IM(t)=1.2977Y(t)-23572479910

442. EX(t)=1.2645Y(t)-23728027570

443. D(t)=Y(t)

444. MD(t)=0.8984Y(t)+318731036r(t)-19458731503

445. MS(t)=1105320265t-2204383017330

446. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

447. Y(t)=580325856.24t-1125618159813.48

448. r(t)=1.8321t-3682.2158

449. TI(t)=49484097.13t-95733347430.15

450. G(t)=75329508.41t-143843626742.82

451. DI(t)=1355086096.88t-2684951177669.21

452. C(t)=890228650.71t-1763180359214.19

453. OR(t)=27041510.63t-52692118910.13

454. TR(t)=22442586.50t-43041228520.02

455. TF(t)=797202827.14t-1602374246375.74

456. I(t)=-365975768.45t+744210798062.30

457. IM(t)=753079724.64t-1484269439609.76

458. EX(t)=733823190.22t-1447074411528.54

459. MD(t)=MS(t)=1105320264.96t-2204383017329.51

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (123.00%) and the minimum in 2010 (90.79%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 89.47-94.79%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2008 (114.20%) and the minimum in 2001 (79.02%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.00-21.04%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2009 (114.01%) and the minimum in 2001 (65.71%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 3.83-5.10%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2016 (135.43%) and the minimum in 2000 (28.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.56-25.19%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2010 (29838.38%) and the minimum in 2009 (-312.69%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between -94.48-2.76%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (125.55%) and the minimum in 2000 (77.27%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 5.72-5.93%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2007 (120.36%) and the minimum in 2000 (82.24%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2014 (115.54%) and the minimum in 2000 (42.26%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 76.94-81.57%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (111.58%) and the minimum in 2000 (42.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 69.30-83.07%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2008 (402.16%) and the minimum in 2014 (-79.53%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (108.06%) and the minimum in 2000 (69.26%). The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2010 (2204.63%) and the minimum in 2009 (-748.59%).

Figure 4.15.1 Figure 4.15.2

Figure 4.15.3 Figure 4.15.4

Figure 4.15.5 Figure 4.15.6

Figure 4.15.7 Figure 4.15.8

Figure 4.15.9 Figure 4.15.10

Figure 4.15.11 Figure 4.15.12

4.16. Luxembourg

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

460. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

461. C(t)=-0.0833DI(t)+20254952122

462. G(t)=0.4671TI(t)-992087977

463. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

464. OR(t)=0.1983Y(t)-2780966232

465. I(t)=0.2139Y(t)-102379431r(t)-1304226113

466. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

467. TF(t)=-1.1787Y(t)+58454923529

468. TR(t)=0.2711Y(t)-1137062161

469. IM(t)=2.9673Y(t)-79618175787

470. EX(t)=3.3522Y(t)-83013522302

471. D(t)=Y(t)

472. MD(t)=7.9702Y(t)+8216342280r(t)-247418738544

473. MS(t)=7786659045t-15453833790054

474. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

475. Y(t)=-2151922942.19t+4374726435832.30

476. r(t)=3.0352t-6094.4158

477. TI(t)=-1010246149.91t+2049850000225.66

478. G(t)=-471898999.38t+956519271086.23

479. DI(t)=967954899.64t-1908200543087.32

480. C(t)=-80654855.76t+179255789476.79

481. OR(t)=-426791173.14t+864859129569.44

482. TR(t)=-583454976.77t+1184990870656.22

483. TF(t)=2536422865.05t-5097936108263.39

484. I(t)=-771083745.62t+1558493778680.72

485. IM(t)=-6385332856.93t+12901369155666.70

486. EX(t)=-7213618198.35t+14581826752255.30

487. MD(t)=MS(t)=7786659044.61t-15453833790054.20

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (117.43%) and the minimum in 2000 (83.77%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 31.72-32.65%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (187.02%) and the minimum in 2000 (46.30%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.90-17.66%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2015 (190.70%) and the minimum in 2000 (46.29%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.57-15.97%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2013 (177.18%) and the minimum in 2000 (47.15%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.89-20.05%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2009 (107.82%) and the minimum in 2010 (-539.37%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between -4.81--4.81%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (165.22%) and the minimum in 2000 (56.70%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.52-25.86%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2007 (117.44%) and the minimum in 2011 (87.93%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (335.07%) and the minimum in 2000 (37.21%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 174.52-185.52%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (385.24%) and the minimum in 2000 (34.71%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 141.64-155.17%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2016 (200.42%) and the minimum in 2000 (50.90%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2013 (131.35%) and the minimum in 2000 (57.53%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2008 (1627.80%) and the minimum in 2007 (-103.31%).

Figure 4.16.1 Figure 4.16.2

Figure 4.16.3 Figure 4.16.4

Figure 4.16.5 Figure 4.16.6

Figure 4.16.7 Figure 4.16.8

Figure 4.16.9 Figure 4.16.10

Figure 4.16.11 Figure 4.16.12

4.17. Malta

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

488. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

489. C(t)=0.3442DI(t)+2156873634

490. G(t)=-0.1033TI(t)+2126247675

491. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

492. OR(t)=-0.3303Y(t)+4445415367

493. I(t)=0.2398Y(t)-57105223r(t)-187831412

494. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

495. TF(t)=-0.7897Y(t)+9703891655

496. TR(t)=-0.4454Y(t)+7114133082

497. IM(t)=2.1129Y(t)-7024580233

498. EX(t)=2.3619Y(t)-8916907167

499. D(t)=Y(t)

500. MD(t)=0.6289Y(t)+198211969r(t)+6261417742

501. MS(t)=334802348t-659345655896

502. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

503. Y(t)=-3989119310.16t+8009183499957.80

504. r(t)=14.3458t-28769.6452

505. TI(t)=3094429861.12t-6201304660022.61

506. G(t)=-319719670.70t+642851412835.66

507. DI(t)=-2615585846.13t+5254051390251.56

508. C(t)=-900242136.02t+1810515965843.85

509. OR(t)=1317782318.57t-2641341682427.92

510. TR(t)=1776647542.55t-3559962977594.69

511. TF(t)=3150181006.59t-6315095087300.93

512. I(t)=-1775721653.73t+3563130347849.92

513. IM(t)=-8428550304.83t+16915459001043.50

514. EX(t)=-9421986154.54t+18908144774471.80

515. MD(t)=MS(t)=334802348.12t-659345655895.93

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2011 (4040.42%) and the minimum in 2012 (-675.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 57.81-62.33%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2010 (792.96%) and the minimum in 2011 (-1667.73%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.85-19.55%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2005 (306.40%) and the minimum in 2004 (-453.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 30.12-31.45%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2006 (165.64%) and the minimum in 2007 (-233.45%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.24-21.24%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2005 (434.35%) and the minimum in 2004 (-197.04%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.90-56.67%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2004 (961.66%) and the minimum in 2003 (-306.25%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 55.36-60.23%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2003 (110.44%) and the minimum in 2011 (87.58%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2006 (124.56%) and the minimum in 2007 (-592.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 118.17-118.17%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2006 (124.12%) and the minimum in 2007 (-1629.82%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 120.01-120.01%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2006 (101.22%) and the minimum in 2014 (-13.58%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (277.22%) and the minimum in 2008 (-894.05%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2006 (36.61%) and the minimum in 2005 (-57.58%).

Figure 4.17.1 Figure 4.17.2

Figure 4.17.3 Figure 4.17.4

Figure 4.17.5 Figure 4.17.6

Figure 4.17.7 Figure 4.17.8

Figure 4.17.9 Figure 4.17.10

Figure 4.17.11 Figure 4.17.12

4.18. Poland

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

516. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

517. C(t)=0.5151DI(t)+51118096746

518. G(t)=0.5047TI(t)+8335249191

519. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

520. OR(t)=0.7104Y(t)-272911327780

521. I(t)=0.3017Y(t)+1249274165r(t)-48647043774

522. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

523. TF(t)=1.2302Y(t)-566349870712

524. TR(t)=0.1459Y(t)+8109845112

525. IM(t)=0.6434Y(t)-106199199073

526. EX(t)=0.7177Y(t)-142179492710

527. D(t)=Y(t)

528. MD(t)=1.0016Y(t)+1212230795r(t)-222609861684

529. MS(t)=15929063833t-31757892135033

530. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

531. Y(t)=109189850047.00t-219191353524047.00

532. r(t)=-77.0733t+155083.5404

533. TI(t)=93504847698.34t-187969557183279.00

534. G(t)=47189959958.56t-94856007030935.60

535. DI(t)=227584401283.21t-457434991502929.00

536. C(t)=117236063217.45t-235588395329202.00

537. OR(t)=77570270108.59t-155990063526520.00

538. TR(t)=15934577589.75t-31979493656758.60

539. TF(t)=134329128825.97t-270223131635640.00

540. I(t)=-63341506734.35t+127559946645906.00

541. IM(t)=70255452999.27t-141139343110592.00

542. EX(t)=78360786604.62t-157446240920409.00

543. MD(t)=MS(t)=15929063832.80t-31757892135033.00

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2010 (526.02%) and the minimum in 2009 (-471.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 66.40-68.37%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2011 (208.17%) and the minimum in 2010 (-2188.23%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.74-20.74%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2011 (2115.23%) and the minimum in 2010 (-99.39%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.51-16.37%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2013 (195.44%) and the minimum in 2014 (-1194.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.16-20.16%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2012 (139.92%) and the minimum in 2011 (-77.67%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 12.70-12.70%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (6498.91%) and the minimum in 2006 (-470.37%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.38-17.67%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2011, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2001 (119.03%) and the minimum in 2005 (88.28%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2010 (325.70%) and the minimum in 2009 (-873.51%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 38.14-41.80%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2009 (4560.46%) and the minimum in 2008 (-303.42%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 36.75-41.70%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2012 (376.45%) and the minimum in 2003 (2.56%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (747.71%) and the minimum in 2007 (-950.64%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2012 (33.50%) and the minimum in 2013 (-5.41%).

Figure 4.18.1 Figure 4.18.2

Figure 4.18.3 Figure 4.18.4

Figure 4.18.5 Figure 4.18.6

Figure 4.18.7 Figure 4.18.8

Figure 4.18.9 Figure 4.18.10

Figure 4.18.11 Figure 4.18.12

4.19. Portugal

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

544. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

545. C(t)=0.9298DI(t)-60133947024

546. G(t)=-0.0334TI(t)+48318970990

547. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

548. OR(t)=0.1358Y(t)+6107857807

549. I(t)=0.3949Y(t)-796134828r(t)-38678031598

550. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

551. TF(t)=-0.3050Y(t)+110355049650

552. TR(t)=0.0691Y(t)+32479942321

553. IM(t)=0.7227Y(t)-83217308315

554. EX(t)=0.1439Y(t)+37816109059

555. D(t)=Y(t)

556. MD(t)=1.5493Y(t)+2345710685r(t)-151442487983

557. MS(t)=1565076974t-2924686804131

558. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

559. Y(t)=-6412249913.80t+13072287844475.70

560. r(t)=4.9023t-9816.0048

561. TI(t)=-1313803817.43t+2716964641877.70

562. G(t)=43847937.16t-42359175391.94

563. DI(t)=-4013421147.69t+8259807687791.40

564. C(t)=-3731732222.58t+7619944810360.53

565. OR(t)=-870562923.06t+1780874791410.18

566. TR(t)=-443240894.37t+936089850467.52

567. TF(t)=1955587871.74t-3876390306216.76

568. I(t)=-6435263841.44t+12938865135839.90

569. IM(t)=-4633890715.71t+9363631159843.04

570. EX(t)=-922992502.64t+1919468233510.27

571. MD(t)=MS(t)=1565076973.87t-2924686804131.45

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2016 (159.47%) and the minimum in 2000 (89.27%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 63.57-66.64%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (110.46%) and the minimum in 2012 (89.97%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.67-21.60%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2014 (140.59%) and the minimum in 2000 (82.21%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.65-17.66%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2010 (1260.69%) and the minimum in 2011 (-1763.13%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.77-24.78%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2000 (121.87%) and the minimum in 2016 (-7.76%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.66-19.66%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (121.24%) and the minimum in 2000 (93.76%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.70-22.84%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (109.27%) and the minimum in 2013 (93.83%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (165.77%) and the minimum in 2000 (71.52%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 29.87-42.03%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (462.76%) and the minimum in 2000 (74.50%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 34.15-43.38%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2006 (17094.01%) and the minimum in 2007 (-469.69%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (159.49%) and the minimum in 2000 (89.34%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2003 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2003 (130.36%) and the minimum in 2002 (-295.24%).

Figure 4.19.1 Figure 4.19.2

Figure 4.19.3 Figure 4.19.4

Figure 4.19.5 Figure 4.19.6

Figure 4.19.7 Figure 4.19.8

Figure 4.19.9 Figure 4.19.10

Figure 4.19.11 Figure 4.19.12

4.20. Czech Republic

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

572. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

573. C(t)=0.4392DI(t)+15171786297

574. G(t)=0.5547TI(t)+9361313453

575. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

576. OR(t)=0.1532Y(t)-1288440362

577. I(t)=0.3408Y(t)+1433299769r(t)-17520245244

578. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

579. TF(t)=-0.9471Y(t)+185227778400

580. TR(t)=0.0968Y(t)+7665562053

581. IM(t)=1.4890Y(t)-175212022629

582. EX(t)=1.7088Y(t)-212847522195

583. D(t)=Y(t)

584. MD(t)=0.8651Y(t)-4246541691r(t)-19266725996

585. MS(t)=5462634020t-10834837913526

586. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

587. Y(t)=-65824940949.43t+132145002164913.00

588. r(t)=-14.6960t+29467.1135

589. TI(t)=-16456583359.17t+33043326525046.50

590. G(t)=-9128510486.16t+18338582276154.80

591. DI(t)=2886347560.07t-5616843355056.07

592. C(t)=1267574938.32t-2451533875843.10

593. OR(t)=-10086201047.64t+20246979770020.40

594. TR(t)=-6370382311.53t+12796346755026.10

595. TF(t)=62340906197.97t-124965498764943.00

596. I(t)=-43496433905.99t+87251624483755.70

597. IM(t)=-98011993730.21t+196585999409620.00

598. EX(t)=-112479565225.82t+225592328690466.00

599. MD(t)=MS(t)=5462634020.27t-10834837913525.80

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (108.08%) and the minimum in 2000 (94.82%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 45.53-49.95%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2008 (486.46%) and the minimum in 2009 (-7262.69%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.41-20.46%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2007 (774.51%) and the minimum in 2008 (-530.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.74-14.44%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2005 (124.27%) and the minimum in 2006 (-2549.90%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 27.89-27.89%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2005 (61.79%) and the minimum in 2004 (-47.76%).

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (627.08%) and the minimum in 2009 (-1438.77%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 12.73-14.28%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (108.99%) and the minimum in 2004 (95.85%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2005 (140.62%) and the minimum in 2006 (-274.14%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 50.66-50.66%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2005 (136.07%) and the minimum in 2006 (-420.55%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 49.82-49.82%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2000 (-0.44%) and the minimum in 2005 (-143.82%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (620.46%) and the minimum in 2008 (-644.44%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2005 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2005 (244.81%) and the minimum in 2006 (-32.73%).

Figure 4.20.1 Figure 4.20.2

Figure 4.20.3 Figure 4.20.4

Figure 4.20.5 Figure 4.20.6

Figure 4.20.7 Figure 4.20.8

Figure 4.20.9 Figure 4.20.10

Figure 4.20.11 Figure 4.20.12

4.21. Romania

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

600. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

601. C(t)=0.7266DI(t)-13231772385

602. G(t)=0.4624TI(t)+1187090604

603. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

604. OR(t)=0.1315Y(t)+985485507

605. I(t)=0.3304Y(t)-639881023r(t)-7796198525

606. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

607. TF(t)=0.0269Y(t)+17877810225

608. TR(t)=0.1926Y(t)-2876201726

609. IM(t)=0.8383Y(t)-73549746160

610. EX(t)=0.6325Y(t)-46783310293

611. D(t)=Y(t)

612. MD(t)=0.6049Y(t)+670540338r(t)-44009161394

613. MS(t)=3079934578t-6128757144019

614. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

615. Y(t)=6418088154.63t-12725779183143.10

616. r(t)=-1.1963t+2405.0843

617. TI(t)=2080375600.47t-4126857508780.15

618. G(t)=962005633.01t-1907151081205.87

619. DI(t)=5354585457.12t-10596313018414.60

620. C(t)=3890597432.26t-7712425024796.68

621. OR(t)=843991734.19t-1672480534740.47

622. TR(t)=1236383866.28t-2454376974039.69

623. TF(t)=172881168.76t-324910809311.18

624. I(t)=2886257043.08t-5751794906073.25

625. IM(t)=5380484946.87t-10741970260549.40

626. EX(t)=4059712993.15t-8096378431616.76

627. MD(t)=MS(t)=3079934578.28t-6128757144019.24

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (115.00%) and the minimum in 2013 (92.08%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 61.24-65.03%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2008 (120.44%) and the minimum in 2015 (85.60%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.94-17.94%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2007 (121.18%) and the minimum in 2013 (87.30%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.56-15.44%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (137.74%) and the minimum in 2016 (71.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.43-33.11%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (132.45%) and the minimum in 2016 (-26.53%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.35-16.64%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (111.62%) and the minimum in 2010 (89.95%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.14-17.93%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2007 (113.00%) and the minimum in 2003 (87.50%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (113.46%) and the minimum in 2009 (79.28%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 23.78-45.27%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (126.96%) and the minimum in 2012 (83.58%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.16-42.82%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2003 (3470.85%) and the minimum in 2004 (-54.84%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (112.67%) and the minimum in 2014 (91.05%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2010 (1702.74%) and the minimum in 2011 (-987.61%).

Figure 4.21.1 Figure 4.21.2

Figure 4.21.3 Figure 4.21.4

Figure 4.21.5 Figure 4.21.6

Figure 4.21.7 Figure 4.21.8

Figure 4.21.9 Figure 4.21.10

Figure 4.21.11 Figure 4.21.12

4.22. Slovak Republic

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

628. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

629. C(t)=0.3657DI(t)+18255905870

630. G(t)=0.3423TI(t)+5678764860

631. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

632. OR(t)=0.2371Y(t)-4158843765

633. I(t)=0.1841Y(t)+156657693r(t)+4816058330

634. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

635. TF(t)=0.6960Y(t)-65626909439

636. TR(t)=0.1375Y(t)+2237161872

637. IM(t)=1.3061Y(t)-41842526834

638. EX(t)=1.5534Y(t)-62866811504

639. D(t)=Y(t)

640. MD(t)=0.5869Y(t)-892351573r(t)+2266462300

641. MS(t)=2191680374t-4354485655723

642. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

643. Y(t)=1654371379.28t-3212334922984.49

644. r(t)=-1.3680t+2769.6164

645. TI(t)=619798930.74t-1205401006660.82

646. G(t)=212186460.55t-406986956974.79

647. DI(t)=2578319289.91t-5074252117743.62

648. C(t)=942939190.53t-1837492217797.46

649. OR(t)=392277204.56t-765853454457.76

650. TR(t)=227521726.19t-439547552203.06

651. TF(t)=1151469636.82t-2301464746962.19

652. I(t)=90246496.23t-152667267529.35

653. IM(t)=2160828905.22t-4237578890353.22

654. EX(t)=2569828137.19t-5052767371036.11

655. MD(t)=MS(t)=2191680373.84t-4354485655723.26

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (93.02%) and the minimum in 2004 (76.83%).

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2015 (90.95%) and the minimum in 2000 (65.96%).

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2015 (94.01%) and the minimum in 2004 (52.82%).

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (89.75%) and the minimum in 2000 (51.72%).

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2005 (147.96%) and the minimum in 2000 (-3068.08%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.10-15.08%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2015 (94.49%) and the minimum in 2001 (62.84%).

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2002 (112.22%) and the minimum in 2005 (90.52%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (81.58%) and the minimum in 2000 (28.80%).

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2016 (81.78%) and the minimum in 2000 (33.73%).

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2013 (80.71%) and the minimum in 2001 (-187.52%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2016 (85.19%) and the minimum in 2000 (57.55%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2012 (26.51%) and the minimum in 2016 (4.64%).

Figure 4.22.1 Figure 4.22.2

Figure 4.22.3 Figure 4.22.4

Figure 4.22.5 Figure 4.22.6

Figure 4.22.7 Figure 4.22.8

Figure 4.22.9 Figure 4.22.10

Figure 4.22.11 Figure 4.22.12

4.23. Slovenia

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

656. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

657. C(t)=0.4302DI(t)+5617257163

658. G(t)=0.4385TI(t)+1092503843

659. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

660. OR(t)=0.9861Y(t)-37756072448

661. I(t)=0.2359Y(t)+296384182r(t)-901628186

662. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

663. TF(t)=2.3919Y(t)-113162637328

664. TR(t)=0.1302Y(t)+2837125658

665. IM(t)=1.3221Y(t)-32129840594

666. EX(t)=1.5524Y(t)-41975115522

667. D(t)=Y(t)

668. MD(t)=0.9365Y(t)-181818596r(t)-15958680976

669. MS(t)=1033328738t-2048890653857

670. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

671. Y(t)=583775955.89t-1124499211699.32

672. r(t)=-2.6763t+5388.8065

673. TI(t)=651656882.62t-1290173883905.73

674. G(t)=285763846.51t-564673103127.71

675. DI(t)=1904115492.69t-3783804764051.21

676. C(t)=819084890.28t-1622045204430.74

677. OR(t)=575648583.94t-1146599923114.80

678. TR(t)=76008298.68t-143573960790.93

679. TF(t)=1396347835.48t-2802879513142.82

680. I(t)=-655502933.13t+1331010630371.92

681. IM(t)=771814564.81t-1518838672901.36

682. EX(t)=906244717.05t-1787630207414.15

683. MD(t)=MS(t)=1033328738.32t-2048890653856.66

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2004 (121.46%) and the minimum in 2015 (93.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 51.23-64.12%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (103.40%) and the minimum in 2014 (81.75%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 18.93-20.68%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2002 (123.72%) and the minimum in 2000 (-157.61%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.71-18.33%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (113.43%) and the minimum in 2000 (50.17%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 32.55-32.57%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2008 (890.07%) and the minimum in 2007 (-2194.47%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between -80.05-17.47%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (111.13%) and the minimum in 2000 (87.69%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.39-21.07%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (109.60%) and the minimum in 2000 (90.62%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2008 (104.64%) and the minimum in 2000 (66.15%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 64.76-80.02%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (112.41%) and the minimum in 2000 (71.69%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 67.30-67.67%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2015 (191.88%) and the minimum in 2000 (-1928.61%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (107.78%) and the minimum in 2000 (85.79%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2012, 2013 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2013 (391.86%) and the minimum in 2014 (-274.05%).

Figure 4.23.1 Figure 4.23.2

Figure 4.23.3 Figure 4.23.4

Figure 4.23.5 Figure 4.23.6

Figure 4.23.7 Figure 4.23.8

Figure 4.23.9 Figure 4.23.10

Figure 4.23.11 Figure 4.23.12

4.24. Spain

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

684. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

685. C(t)=0.5233DI(t)+76709491389

686. G(t)=-0.1327TI(t)+277902169518

687. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

688. OR(t)=-0.0017Y(t)+28682840090

689. I(t)=0.2386Y(t)+4943638174r(t)-4705788891

690. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

691. TF(t)=-0.1314Y(t)+345606641659

692. TR(t)=0.0541Y(t)+120488626983

693. IM(t)=0.4084Y(t)-179954892657

694. EX(t)=0.3750Y(t)-144200699948

695. D(t)=Y(t)

696. MD(t)=1.8468Y(t)+5999002680r(t)-1222641042166

697. MS(t)=40359649287t-79717092785833

698. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

699. Y(t)=17528421219.19t-33835676631912.60

700. r(t)=1.3316t-2668.2465

701. TI(t)=919124255.66t-1625043718093.54

702. G(t)=-121956052.26t+493524720421.98

703. DI(t)=14276331516.23t-27332945009526.90

704. C(t)=7470515912.19t-14226068528903.70

705. OR(t)=-30016657.23t+86624961349.45

706. TR(t)=949140912.90t-1711668679442.99

707. TF(t)=-2302948790.06t+4791062942942.64

708. I(t)=10764443768.00t-21267325287898.20

709. IM(t)=7158088555.67t-13997444023241.80

710. EX(t)=6573506146.92t-12833251558774.40

711. MD(t)=MS(t)=40359649286.63t-79717092785833.20

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2007 (111.07%) and the minimum in 2000 (93.88%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 56.62-58.44%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (119.09%) and the minimum in 2000 (75.35%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 17.66-20.68%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2014 (128.73%) and the minimum in 2009 (88.17%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 1.89-2.46%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2007 (130.31%) and the minimum in 2013 (67.35%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.91-29.91%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (133.82%) and the minimum in 2016 (-0.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 11.53-14.37%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (126.85%) and the minimum in 2009 (80.63%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 13.25-16.70%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2009 (115.15%) and the minimum in 2014 (92.44%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2016 (112.27%) and the minimum in 2009 (89.51%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 25.28-32.12%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (126.41%) and the minimum in 2013 (86.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 28.33-31.76%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2007 (965.23%) and the minimum in 2013 (-467.44%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2007 (109.24%) and the minimum in 2013 (93.33%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2004 (1583.98%) and the minimum in 2003 (-384.43%).

Figure 4.24.1 Figure 4.24.2

Figure 4.24.3 Figure 4.24.4

Figure 4.24.5 Figure 4.24.6

Figure 4.24.7 Figure 4.24.8

Figure 4.24.9 Figure 4.24.10

Figure 4.24.11 Figure 4.24.12

4.25. Sweden

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

712. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

713. C(t)=0.3324DI(t)+56770856713

714. G(t)=0.8138TI(t)-8839930066

715. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

716. OR(t)=0.0096Y(t)+24249756067

717. I(t)=0.4648Y(t)+4388199973r(t)-124992465898

718. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

719. TF(t)=-0.0577Y(t)+156709447926

720. TR(t)=0.2153Y(t)+26979811092

721. IM(t)=0.7002Y(t)-141377305055

722. EX(t)=0.7487Y(t)-137512419343

723. D(t)=Y(t)

724. MD(t)=0.7309Y(t)-25133444402r(t)-4440346169

725. MS(t)=14726080662t-29310306033125

726. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

727. Y(t)=39216989358.16t-78221474484619.50

728. r(t)=0.5545t-1108.6501

729. TI(t)=8822267074.87t-17545499559361.60

730. G(t)=7179423204.15t-14287093534937.90

731. DI(t)=28511334506.56t-56738445639428.30

732. C(t)=9476133263.77t-18801030132395.60

733. OR(t)=377871327.81t-729445336559.83

734. TR(t)=8444395747.06t-16816054222801.80

735. TF(t)=-2261259104.55t+4666974622389.37

736. I(t)=20661582473.99t-41347809547884.80

737. IM(t)=27460499997.18t-54913577696253.50

738. EX(t)=29360350413.43t-58699118965654.70

739. MD(t)=MS(t)=14726080662.23t-29310306033125.30

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2000 (127.07%) and the minimum in 2016 (81.18%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 44.51-48.46%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2000 (140.30%) and the minimum in 2015 (77.66%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.41-26.02%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2000 (120.20%) and the minimum in 2014 (88.93%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 6.18-7.97%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2002 (523.44%) and the minimum in 2001 (-2261.45%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 21.24-24.83%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (139.89%) and the minimum in 2016 (8.94%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 28.49-31.65%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2000 (163.66%) and the minimum in 2014 (71.53%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 26.85-30.02%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (105.75%) and the minimum in 2005 (92.98%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (750.93%) and the minimum in 2016 (56.05%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 40.23-47.26%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2000 (1988.38%) and the minimum in 2016 (55.42%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 34.85-38.88%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2004 (148.10%) and the minimum in 2014 (60.66%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2000 (186.60%) and the minimum in 2016 (66.71%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 is above the equilibrium value and in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2000 (1495.96%) and the minimum in 2016 (5.62%).

Figure 4.25.1 Figure 4.25.2

Figure 4.25.3 Figure 4.25.4

Figure 4.25.5 Figure 4.25.6

Figure 4.25.7 Figure 4.25.8

Figure 4.25.9 Figure 4.25.10

Figure 4.25.11 Figure 4.25.12

4.26. Netherlands

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

740. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

741. C(t)=0.0441DI(t)+340181105227

742. G(t)=0.9575TI(t)-104235922485

743. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

744. OR(t)=0.2962Y(t)-98797761157

745. I(t)=0.3076Y(t)+6476121317r(t)-99835306237

746. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

747. TF(t)=-0.2099Y(t)+334531490122

748. TR(t)=0.1980Y(t)+9774484144

749. IM(t)=1.7436Y(t)-915344642035

750. EX(t)=2.0747Y(t)-1113585990886

751. D(t)=Y(t)

752. MD(t)=2.2776Y(t)-39295568387r(t)-874330115685

753. MS(t)=31039080453t-61473578943928

754. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

755. Y(t)=9964482997.11t-19195043269863.60

756. r(t)=-0.2123t+429.5628

757. TI(t)=4924394395.95t-9575111369643.65

758. G(t)=4715255198.31t-9272691986298.37

759. DI(t)=5899675835.99t-11040060715400.60

760. C(t)=260452853.57t-147204201497.04

761. OR(t)=2951309921.46t-5784042210024.17

762. TR(t)=1973084474.49t-3791069159619.48

763. TF(t)=-2091722686.63t+4363913394843.44

764. I(t)=1690144736.61t-3222602192922.62

765. IM(t)=17374309845.34t-34384279193088.80

766. EX(t)=20672940053.96t-40936824082234.30

767. MD(t)=MS(t)=31039080452.54t-61473578943928.40

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2008 (103.02%) and the minimum in 2000, 2013 (98.20%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 43.28-50.06%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2009 (109.28%) and the minimum in 2015 (93.66%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 22.91-26.53%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2008 (108.89%) and the minimum in 2015 (92.89%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 16.50-19.84%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2008 (113.65%) and the minimum in 2013 (88.72%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.78-22.84%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (122.04%) and the minimum in 2016 (-7.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.51-23.34%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2007 (109.42%) and the minimum in 2012 (92.28%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.98-21.93%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2000, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2000 (111.98%) and the minimum in 2002 (92.74%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2000 (106.53%) and the minimum in 2009 (91.49%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 58.89-86.67%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2007 (106.16%) and the minimum in 2009 (93.45%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 52.44-75.28%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2000 (111.53%) and the minimum in 2009 (77.82%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2008 (105.34%) and the minimum in 2013 (97.25%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2003, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2008 (131.87%) and the minimum in 2016 (19.32%).

Figure 4.26.1 Figure 4.26.2

Figure 4.26.3 Figure 4.26.4

Figure 4.26.5 Figure 4.26.6

Figure 4.26.7 Figure 4.26.8

Figure 4.26.9 Figure 4.26.10

Figure 4.26.11 Figure 4.26.12

4.27. Hungary

After the analysis during 2000-2016 the model equations are:

768. D(t)=C(t)+G(t)+I(t)+EX(t)-IM(t)

769. C(t)=0.4192DI(t)+18134310855

770. G(t)=0.2301TI(t)+16226094910

771. TI(t)=TR(t)+OR(t)

772. OR(t)=0.2168Y(t)-7140539361

773. I(t)=0.0692Y(t)+577220126r(t)+16273939153

774. DI(t)=Y(t)+TF(t)-TR(t)

775. TF(t)=-1.2559Y(t)+175365904105

776. TR(t)=0.2631Y(t)-5805208187

777. IM(t)=2.1492Y(t)-190720075032

778. EX(t)=2.5678Y(t)-241692407021

779. D(t)=Y(t)

780. MD(t)=1.1641Y(t)+762334174r(t)-87521236996

781. MS(t)=2662219407t-5276133301168

782. MD(t)=MS(t)

Solving the equations, we find that at equilibrium (“t” being the year):

783. Y(t)=1343117618.31t-2569315292258.51

784. r(t)=1.4413t-2882.9579

785. TI(t)=644498647.44t-1245838688666.36

786. G(t)=148298341.01t-270439845233.91

787. DI(t)=-697036843.48t+1514566934673.46

788. C(t)=-292197725.23t+653040510099.03

789. OR(t)=291175562.06t-564144493546.17

790. TR(t)=353323085.38t-681694195120.20

791. TF(t)=-1686831376.41t+3402188031811.77

792. I(t)=924824205.75t-1825497565675.06

793. IM(t)=2886610512.59t-5712658311623.87

794. EX(t)=3448803309.38t-6839076703072.44

795. MD(t)=MS(t)=2662219407.47t-5276133301168.21

From the relationships, we can draw the following conclusions:

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Actual final consumption of households” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of households” was registered in 2015 (113.92%) and the minimum in 2000 (84.94%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 50.84-56.89%.

The analysis of “Actual final consumption of the government” emphasizes that in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Actual final consumption of the government” was registered in 2006 (112.53%) and the minimum in 2000 (86.25%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 20.39-23.18%.

The analysis of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2010 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Other revenues” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2010 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Other revenues” was registered in 2008 (114.06%) and the minimum in 2000 (92.89%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 15.16-17.03%.

The analysis of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Investment” emphasizes that in 2008 is above the equilibrium value and in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Investment” was registered in 2004 (121.35%) and the minimum in 2016 (68.56%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 24.37-27.29%.

The analysis of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Government transfers” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Government transfers” was registered in 2015 (814.11%) and the minimum in 2016 (-9582.36%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 14.20-19.63%.

The analysis of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Tax revenue” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2011 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Tax revenue” was registered in 2008 (116.53%) and the minimum in 2001 (93.46%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 19.78-23.35%.

The analysis of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Broad money” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Broad money” was registered in 2008 (108.43%) and the minimum in 2001 (93.34%).

The analysis of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Exports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Exports” was registered in 2008 (125.98%) and the minimum in 2000 (76.22%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 63.46-96.75%.

The analysis of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Imports” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Imports” was registered in 2008 (127.32%) and the minimum in 2000 (78.59%). The excess of equilibrium values is due, in the corresponding periods, to the large share of GDP, between 57.39-86.83%.

The analysis of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Trade balance” emphasizes that in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is above the equilibrium value and in 2008 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Trade balance” was registered in 2003 (1550.02%) and the minimum in 2004 (-2760.42%).

The analysis of “Output” emphasizes that in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2012, 2013 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Output” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 is above the equilibrium value and in 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Output” was registered in 2006 (109.98%) and the minimum in 2000 (91.62%).

The analysis of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 is above the equilibrium value and in 2000, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 is below the equilibrium value. During the financial crisis (2008-2012), the behavior of “Real interest rate (%)” emphasizes that in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 is below the equilibrium value. The maximum ratio between real and equilibrium value of “Real interest rate (%)” was registered in 2001 (735.24%) and the minimum in 2000 (-2370.39%).

Figure 4.27.1 Figure 4.27.2

Figure 4.27.3 Figure 4.27.4

Figure 4.27.5 Figure 4.27.6

Figure 4.27.7 Figure 4.27.8

Figure 4.27.9 Figure 4.27.10

Figure 4.27.11 Figure 4.27.12

5. References

Ioan, C.A. & Ioan, G. (2011). The Equilibrium Analysis of a Closed Economy Model with Government and Money Market Sector. Acta Universitatis Danubius, Oeconomica, nr. 5, vol. 7, pp. 127-143.

Ioan, C.A. & Ioan, G. (2013). A Mathematical Model of an Open Economy with Applications in Romania. Acta Universitatis Danubius, Oeconomica, nr. 5, vol. 9, pp.103-170.

Ioan, C.A. & Ioan, G. (2016), An Equilibrium Model for the Romanian Economy. Journal of Accounting and Management, Nr. 2, Vol. 6, pp. 41 – 75.

Romer, David (1996). Advanced Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill.

*** http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx.

*** https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/.

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