Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, Vol 12, No 5 (2016)

A Bayesian approach for the analysis of macroeconomic dynamic in case of emerging countries- Monetary and fiscal policy model

Georgiana Alina Ionita



Abstract: The paper proposes the analysis of the main drivers of the economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, in three emerging countries: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with a development stage similar with that of Romania.

Given the vulnerabilities of the Central and Eastern Europe region at the beginning and during the recent global economic and financial crisis, there is an increased interest to identify the models that can describe the principal characteristics of the Central and Eastern Europe macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product, investment, wages and salaries, inflation, hours worked, consumption and  the monetary variable- interest rate.

Moreover, another scope is to analyze the frictions that describe the evolution of the seven data series, as the stochastic dynamic of the macroeconomic model is driven by orthogonal structural shocks..


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